Like two male frilled lizards, India and Pakistan are at their posturing best again. So if India’s External Affairs Minister reiterates that India has kept all its options open, Pakistan’s Army Chief says they are capable of retaliating within minutes and scrambles some aircraft to fly sorties as if to say “So there!” India seems to be sounding more and more petulant, and Pakistan, like a recalcitrant child, seems intent on digging in its heels and staying defiant. So where is this heading?
There are enough people within India who are pushing for some kind of action against Pakistan. The trouble is, after 25 years or so of blaming Pakistan for everything, there is a kind of weariness now in the international community. I mean, there can only be two options – either we are right, or we got it all wrong. Now, if we have been right for a quarter of a century, what have we done about it except whine, whine and then whine some more? And as any schoolchild will tell you, constant whining and running to the teacher every time you are pushed around will not only get you bullied some more, it will also make the teacher take you less seriously.
And that’s exactly where we find ourselves. Yet again.
So what do we do? Unfortunately, the options before us are very limited. We can continue to try and bring more international pressure on Pakistan, but given Obama’s views on, and the US agenda in, Afghanistan, as well as his limited understanding of the sub-continent, that’s not going to work for too long. Ditto for any economic sanctions. It doesn’t suit US interests in the region. The US is, as any nation should be, guided by its self-interest. (China is the best example of this, in their single-minded quest for world domination. If we had even a tiny fraction of the clear-mindedness and determination of the Chinese, we would have been on a completely different plane today.)
Today, we are, not to put too fine a point on it, between a rock and a hard place.
Given that we actually have no options – Pranab Mukherjee notwithstanding – how might the scenario unfold? In an election year, the UPA government might be constrained to escalate matters beyond mere sabre-rattling. A surgical strike, or anything like that, to my mind, will precipitate war simply because the civilian government (or what passes for it in Pakistan) will, similarly, have no choice but to retaliate to survive. The Pakistan military – even if it doesn’t decide to stage a coup – will welcome a chance to go to war against India, for three reasons: one, it gives them a chance to take centre-stage in the country again. Two, it takes the pressure off them in terms of attacking and disabling ideologically similar institutions – like the Taliban – that they have created, equipped and supported. Three, they know that while a war with India is not a war they can win, they also know it’s not a war they can lose.
I know the last point will shock a good many Indians. But that’s the truth. Our conventional military edge is not what it used to be. While we have clear numerical superiority – in personnel and equipment – the difference is not enough to give us victory. A conventional war will likely be a protracted, grinding affair with no clear winner, a military stalemate. It will, however, be disastrous for our economy and set us back 20 years. Even if we assume that India’s conventional superiority brings us close to victory, here’s a likely – but entirely fictional – account of what will happen next. (This also assumes that the nuclear option will not be exercised by either party.)
The moment India secures a military advantage, Washington will be told by Islamabad that there is huge internal pressure from within Pakistan’s establishment to go in for a nuclear strike. That ensures that there is suddenly tremendous pressure on India – from all quarters – to exercise restraint, and pull back with some face-saving measures. Simultaneously with India’s upper-hand in the conflict becoming evident, China will suddenly decide to hold some exercises on their side of the border with India, and make a show of moving some troops there. Perhaps even fly some sorties of their own. They will, of course, ratchet up the rhetoric on Arunachal and Sikkim as well, forcing India to divert attention, personnel and equipment to the east. And voilà, we are right where Pakistan – and China – want us. Militarily debilitated and demoralised, politically fragile and economically devastated. And that’s the end of our dream.
Regrettably, years of crying wolf, and a reputation of timidity, have left us with only one option – that of being defensive. And that necessitates setting our own house in order.
War is not an option.
UPDATE: A well-written article on how far our excellent diplomatic skills and clear-minded foreign policy have taken us….
December 24, 2008 at 7:02 pm
Your post leaves me with just few questions.
DO we as country have a future?
Do we have something on which we can pin our hopes??
Can we really hope that after these
allegations & counter allegations die down there won’t be any more terror attacks???
I wonmder where are we leading as a country…
December 24, 2008 at 7:56 pm
“And that necessitates setting our own house in order.”
I believe too, that that is our only option.
December 24, 2008 at 8:20 pm
Brilliant. Gave me goose bumps … I anyway agree with this. But the way you have explained it with such clarity is great. I agree this is exactly what might happen. I hope not.
Posturing Lizards are exactly what they are.
December 24, 2008 at 8:27 pm
Santa has left something special for you on my blog here 🙂
Some bloggers give us Hope. These bloggers can see above the generalizations of Caste, Community, Religion, Language, Region, Race and National boundaries. They are the hope of our UNITY IN DIVERSITY. This Special Award is very close to my heart. And it’s being passed on to you.
Merry Christmas 🙂
December 24, 2008 at 8:54 pm
Brilliant!!!
and a great analysis of the whole almost (comical) situation…..
According to me, War is not an option, but we definitely need to take all precautions to ensure that our borders are not porous….
We do not need people coming in from Pak, Bang and Sri Lanka….
December 24, 2008 at 9:31 pm
If there should be a war , then we should go in with all guns blazing , nukes ready and roaring to go . It would wither be the end of us , or the a very new begining . But coming back to the big bad world of facts , I know it won’t happen . Your post has hit the nail mate . A few minutes , that is precisely what we were discussing . Nobody helps a weakling . we got to show some balls and aggression . Then , maybe , God willing , other nations might rise to the occasion . And as far as the other options are concerned , do we still have ties (apart from Cricket ) with them ? What about Naval blockade or their only port . What about no trade , no water , not allowing their people to come over here and sing and dance ? What intense lobbying in the US against Pakistan ? Why can’t we bleed them before they relent ? It may sound very jingoistic of me , but right now , we need much more than Patriotism . Exigent circumstances call for extreme measures , don’t they ? When will we use “sam,dam,dand,bhed” , as one our forgotten heroes Chanakya said ?
December 24, 2008 at 11:15 pm
Nice article. Especially liked the “boy complaining to teacher” analogy.
December 24, 2008 at 11:52 pm
Very well written!
War is not an option not just for India, but for anyone in the current world order.
If the US with all its might lost so much in Iraq against a negligible opposition, imagine what would happen if two nuclear nations go to war, especially when one of them is a rogue state that doesn’t care about anything, and is itself is such a bad shape that it stands to lose anything.
Things might have been less complicated if Pakistan had not gone nuclear though.
December 25, 2008 at 12:35 am
Sir,
While war might not be an option surely some tough measures are called for?Even if India does attack training camps in POK(which will NEVER happen)the cry of ”India has started a WAR!” will not just start from Pakistan but will reverberate around the world…
anyway rest assured we’ll never have to worry about that looking at how completely impotent our govt is………..
In Dinkar’s words
क्षमा शोभती उस भुजंग को
जिसके पास गरल हो
उसको क्या जो दंतहीन
विषरहित, विनीत, सरल हो ।
December 25, 2008 at 1:40 pm
I agree,
It is a bitter truth, but a truth nevertheless.
December 25, 2008 at 5:56 pm
Ah, but war never was an option.
Rest assured, the GoI knows it can’t go to war with a nuclear armed country.
All this is just posturing to get the US to arm-twist Pakistan further. Maybe it’ll work, maybe it won’t.
As far as games go, this one’s damn interesting. Give me Indo-Pak posturing over T20 any day.
Also, I doubt the Pak Army is going to use this to occupy centre stage for the simple fact that the Army is already occupying it.
Zardari was most probably literally rapped on the knuckles when he promised India the ISI chief.
Besides, the Army chief controls the nuclear Arsenal. Zardari is just a plaything to keep everybody happy, after Mush messed up.
Hades
The Times of Bullshit
December 25, 2008 at 5:57 pm
Oh and well analysed. Quite un-Quirky! 😀
December 25, 2008 at 5:59 pm
Couldn’t agree more, though with yr conclusion- war is NOT an option
December 26, 2008 at 6:06 am
Forget war. We got many many ways of squeezing Pak economically and to bring them to their knees. War is not always an option.
Truth is does the Indian political leaders have the balls to do something about it?
December 26, 2008 at 10:54 am
“…single-minded quest for word domination.” What does this mean, Quirky? Am I missing something?
Your prognosis is chilling.
One sincerely hopes that the aggression is just posturing, that the lizards will soon tire of it. And that the Indian lizard will get back to the real issue – getting its act together (police, intelligence, governance . . .).
December 26, 2008 at 11:16 am
And this refrain of “Pakistan is a failed state” is such gross pots-and-kettles stuff!
December 26, 2008 at 12:45 pm
QI, I’ll have to agree with you, reputation of timidity, have left us with only one option – that of being defensive.
The problem is in my opinion, the Leadership. No Vision and Unified Goals. Sad but true.
December 26, 2008 at 4:06 pm
Quirky Indian!
Great Stuff! Very well put. Most of us know these facts but struggle to find a way out.
May I suggest some quirky ones?
1. Israel style. Send in an undercover contingent. Not to terrorize. Simple to a) bring back the targets to India for a trial or b) eliminate if a) looks too difficult.
This will get our job done & cause worldwide public humiliation to pak.
2. Every single kind of sanction that we can impose on them. No business, no visas, no cricket, no diplomacy. So when VP’s of Global MNC’s have to visit on business, they can’t. Spanner in their works on as many fronts as we can.
And international diplomacy to get others to do the same. Even if we get 2-3 more countries to join us, it’s a step in the right direction.
If the screws are tight enough, they will face internal & international pressure to handover their camp leaders. Hopefully.
3. An International PR programme that exposes every single facet of pak-sponsored terror. We have some great ad & PR agencies. We can do this. If Amnesty/Greenpeace/WWF/WHO/UNICEF/NBA can drum up support, so can we!
Pressure until they crack.
4. Talks. Peace Talks. Someone who can get them to understand that their only hope of peace & prosperity is if they drop their anti-India identity.
Because a failed pak state is more of a danger than the current semi-failed state?
5. Talk of reunification. Mass ground support, ad campaigns & PR. Get some people to start thinking on these lines at least. Will cause some shift in the long-term in pak policy on India. And in ours on them.
Quirky? Yes. But put them all together & it looks like a plan?
December 27, 2008 at 4:48 am
Quirky, for all your (legitimate) ranting and raving about human rights in India, I find it interesting that you admire the “clear-mindedness and determination of the Chinese”.
The only thing the Communist Party is clear minded about is maintaining control and ‘economic progress’, at any cost.
No doubt mistakes were made, but I dont think there are many countries that share a long, densely populated border with a shaky state that its not on the best of terms with.
Your main quirk seems to be unbridled cynicism 😀 .
December 27, 2008 at 9:01 am
@Smita: We’re kind of drifting along….not really headed anywhere.
@Banno: Thanks.
@IHM: Thanks, and thank you for the award as well. 🙂
@Ajit: Thanks…what you have mentioned is important…part of being ‘defensive’.
@Kislay: A combination of some of those options might be a solution, but not war.
@Rohit: Welcome and thanks!
@Amreekandesi: Thanks…yes, a non-nuclear state would have simplified the equation, but that’s what deterrence is.
@Abhilasha: Welcome. And you’re right to quote Dinkar here, our ‘magnanimity’ and ‘forgiveness’ stem from weakness….
@Manpreet: What is to be doing? 😦
@Hades: Don’t assume that rationality exists in either country. Also, there’s a difference between being the power behind the throne and occupying centre-stage, so to speak. The Army occupied centre-stage during Mush’s time…while they may still call the shots, it’s not open martial law. And thanks, I’ll take the second comment as a compliment. 🙂
@Liju: Clearly, we do not have the will to do anything! Neither the balls.
@Smokescreen: I hope it’s posturing too….and sorry for the typo – ‘word’ should have been ‘world’. I did not mean to imply Chinese domination of the Scrabble Championships, likely though it is. What I meant to convey was that the Chinese have, economically and militarily, built themselves up very systematically…be it the tying up of resources and raw materials worldwide, arm-twisting other countries into accepting the status-quo on Taiwan and Tibet, enhancing their ICBM capabilities…even the Olympics was a part of that quest. They are not there yet, but it is their belief – and objective – that as US power wanes in the next few decades, they will occupy the place it will vacate. And they will do their best to ensure it remains a uni-polar world.
December 27, 2008 at 9:05 am
Amen to that!
December 27, 2008 at 9:17 am
@Chirag: Thanks dude. Let’s hope we learn from all our mistakes.
@Iconoclast: Welcome and thanks for the comment. Some very interesting suggestions, and I guess it will have to be a combination of some or all of them. It’ll also take time. But that doesn’t take away from the fact that we need to also set our own internal capabilities right. And I don’t mean more draconian laws.
@Vikram: You obviously see the world as black or white. Trouble is, out of the rarefied world of academic papers, the world’s gray. I see no inconsistency in condemning China’s human rights record, yet admiring their foreign policy achievements: everyone knows their record on Tibet and their bullying stance on Taiwan. Yet the same countries that are quick to condemn India for any abuses are very quiet when it comes to China. That, my friend, is the result of single-minded focus and determination, and some excellent foreign policy, guided by self-interest. Don’t make the (common) mistake of seeing everything through the same prism.
You are evidently a very keen observer as well. Yes, I am extremely cynical, though I am not sure what that has to do with the effectiveness or otherwise of my argument. It definitely does not make my argument less valid. More so when all you can resort to as a rebuttal is ad hominem.
You’re welcome to participate in the discussion and leave valid comments. The operative word being ‘valid’….please don’t bother otherwise. Cheers.
@LM: Danke!
December 27, 2008 at 1:56 pm
War is not an Option! And honestly, we don’t really have many options. Totally agree but why does Pranab M think we are idiots? This one I’ve never figured out. He still harps All Options Open… Pray that under election pressure, the Congress doesn’t start a war.
December 28, 2008 at 9:40 am
Hi Quirky,
I have the Ultimate solution for your “problem”.
Just import the Taiwanese KMT political party and then, no problem.
After a while, no more Indian or Pakistan problem.
Thanks to the KMT, India and Pakistan will enjoy a reunification.
Just one country… Whoah!
Oh yes, still one “small” problem…
Reunification… under which name?
🙂
http://fvarga.wordpress.com/
December 28, 2008 at 8:25 pm
What is this posturing going to solve? Nothing!
We dont look at the real issues but bother about all these irrelevant posturing. Will war help? Not at all
December 28, 2008 at 11:14 pm
“You obviously see the world as black or white. Trouble is, out of the rarefied world of academic papers, the world’s gray.”
Off the topic, but I would just like to say that is how I think . No absolutes and no black-and-white . One Big Grey Zone .
December 29, 2008 at 12:31 pm
War is not an option. We shall never initiate war is also a truth. India is fighting a diplomatic war and trying to isolate Pakistan.
However when you speak of clear minded China I must remind you it is not a democracy.
Do you know if I were living in a province of China and I wanted to go to Shanghai I would need a particular permit. Only if I qualify certain norms would I be allowed to enter the city ??? There are many hidden truths (many dirty) about China which you can only discover if you visit there.
Imagine if we also have to apply for a permit for going to Mumbai or Delhi ??
So both countries are entirely different and democracy can never be clear minded and hence they cannot be compared.
Also remember one thing, Innocent people lost lives in Mumbai, yes our security was lax and we must tighten it. Yes we were found wanting and we must not let it happen again.
But the killers came from outside, they were aided, trained & motivated in some place that is not inside our country.
It is like in Chess : If you keep defending defending defending and never go on the offensive and the opposition is allowed to keep attacking attacking & attacking some time or the other there will be a lapse in the defense and another Mumbai will happen !!!
Remember the people who came were not scared to die. They were so highly motivated !!!
The solution I am afraid does not exist.
We have to diplomatically put Pakistan under tremendous pressure and force it to act. When enough pressure is surmounted the truth will surface that the Government of Pakistan is not able to control its military which works independently. We need to first expose the Govt of Pakistan which is acting/pretending to be controlling the country. They couldnt even find who killed Benazir
Can you explain how many counter statements they have made ??? Why ??? They decide something and than they are made to change it, they are forced to detract their statements.
1.) ISI Chief is coming — Oh he is not coming some other top official is coming !
2.) Azhar is under house arrest — Oh we are also looking for him he is not under house arrest.
3.) Nawaz Sharif : Qasab is Pakistani, I have confirmed it myself — Oh no we need more proof to establish he is pakistani ??
Do you think these people are diplomatic fools ??? nope but they are made to change statements by the military.
US needs the military so it will not intervene at the moment. They now clearly know its the military who are calling the shots and not the Govt. If they expose this, they cannot use Pakistani soil and Pakistani military can they ??
Peace can be had with our neighbours if there is intent in the leadership of the neighbours.
However it is the hard truth & bitter pill for us to swallow that Pakistani leadership is the military and they will never ever want peace with us.
This is a future Afghanistan and we happen to share a border with them !!!
December 29, 2008 at 5:18 pm
@ dhiren..
Whether or not we have a ‘lapse in defense’, my mind tells me that another Mumbai WILL happen.. sooner or later.
My mind also tells me, it’s going to make a giant leap in frequency and scale any moment India declares war on Pakistan.
Why?
Because it’ll take away the semblance of ‘civilian government’ off pakistan. There are too many influential people who WANT a war with India for their own selfish interests.
We don’t like the bees.. but stirring its nest with a military stick isn’t going to help us.
There needs to be a wiser approach to kill the bees and get to the honey.
December 29, 2008 at 7:37 pm
Rakesh,
I don’t think under the current leadership, the Congress will crumble to political pressure. They’ve got a reputation for being measured as opposed to knee-jerk, quiet as opposed to jingoistic/spouting rhetoric & moderate as opposed to trigger happy.
_____
fvarga,
Small problem. Can be worked out. What’s in a name?
______
Yaamyn & All,
While we all agree that all out war isn’t an option, I’d like to submit this as an addendum to what I’d proposed earlier. Apparently there are more people thinking like us.
December 30, 2008 at 2:32 pm
The post and comments are as if Pak do not have nuclear arms we should have declared war.Any attack on Pak will only play into terrorist’s hand. Even this attack on Mumbai can be considered as thier attempt to increase mutual hostility in both nations in which they succeeded.Bad Indo Pak reln means more money and business for terrorists. In that sense good that Pak had nukes.Otherwise clamour for war would have multiplied and sub continent turned into another Middle East.
December 30, 2008 at 6:12 pm
Succinctly put.
You have just put all our fears into words. It is definitel possible that Pak and china may be cohorts, which might be giving pak extra support, because only of late has pak been crying too loudly about war and nukes.
Plus among all these talks and war cries, we are forgetting that there are still terrorists lose in India. As soon as we declare war or anything resembling attack, we will be attacked from within too.
December 30, 2008 at 6:27 pm
On another note, I read the news in a tamil weekly, Thuglak, that it was sonia gandhi who told the CBI not to investigate the intel news about the terrorist. Did you hear anything about this?
Thanks.
December 31, 2008 at 11:17 am
I’m amused at the lengths the so-called ‘diplomats’ go to cover their own asses and blame the next pair! 😀
January 5, 2009 at 6:31 pm
Ah, quite a revelation… Third point did not shock me much though. That had been obvious of Pak for long now.
Wrong post to mention, however I wish you a very Happy New Year.
January 6, 2009 at 5:43 pm
There will be another coup in Pakistan, Taliban will also prosper in its happy pockets and some madman will press the trigger.
Peaceniks can sing songs and light candles and epicures can submerge in unbridled hedonism for the end is nigh.
Till then lets play politics and religion and recriminate against each other.
After the nuclear explosion some people will still ask for proof – CONCLUSIVE PROOF.
January 6, 2009 at 10:54 pm
Just look at what’s happening in Gaza. Hamas will keep lobbing rockets at Israel, Israel will raid Gaza, innocents will get killed. There’ll be peace for a while and Hamas will be back to their antics. The real perpetrators always get away.